Nate Silver — the gay stats wizard who totally called the 2012 elections — just announced his forecast for the big Oscar award winners, but be warned — unlike his election predictions, Silver's Oscar selection system isn't foolproof.
What he basically did was look at the organizations that give out annual movie awards before the Oscars (like the Golden Globes and BAFTA). Then he calculated how often those organizations' awards have mirrored the Academy Award's eventual winners.
Some of the organizations match the Oscars more often than others, and he attests that the economics and politics influence the Academy's choices to a large degree. But after acknowledging these random factors, the brilliantly bitchy Silver then predicted the following big award winners:
Best Picture - Argo
Best Director - Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
It looks like you can generally expect Steven Spielberg's Lincoln to sweep the Oscars this go around. But if you want a second opinion on who else to choose for your Oscar pool, Entertainment Weekly always has a prediction list worth reading.
And if you win, we fully expect you to split the winnings with us. Seriously.