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Let Nate Silver Help You Win Your Oscar Pool

By Daniel Villarreal

Nate Silver — the gay stats wizard who totally called the 2012 elections — just announced his forecast for the big Oscar award winners, but be warned — unlike his election predictions, Silver's Oscar selection system isn't foolproof.

What he basically did was look at the organizations that give out annual movie awards before the Oscars (like the Golden Globes and BAFTA). Then he calculated how often those organizations' awards have mirrored the Academy Award's eventual winners.

Some of the organizations match the Oscars more often than others, and he attests that the economics and politics influence the Academy's choices to a large degree. But after acknowledging these random factors, the brilliantly bitchy Silver then predicted the following big award winners:

Best Picture - Argo

Best Director - Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

It looks like you can generally expect Steven Spielberg's Lincoln to sweep the Oscars this go around. But if you want a second opinion on who else to choose for your Oscar pool, Entertainment Weekly always has a prediction list worth reading.

And if you win, we fully expect you to split the winnings with us. Seriously.

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